McGabber

More Bunting, More Idiots

I haven't caught as many full games as I'd like to this year, but if the ones I've viewed are any indication  -- far too many teams are throwing games away via the "Gift Out" (aka, the sacrifice bunt).

Last night's idiocy makes the earlier Oriole's bunt-a-thon strategy seem restrained and successful by comparison.

It was get-away day and there was only one 10 PM start for those of us on the east coast. Fortunately, it looked like a pretty interesting game: the Blue Jays vs the Greater Southwest Angels of Anaheim.  Halladay was picthing for the Jays, and I enjoy watching the top picthers when they find a groove (I had a standing date with TBS when Maddux took the ball).  And it is never boring when you can see  Vlad "I See The Ball - I Hit The Ball" Guerrero.

It started off with Halladay sending Angels smartly back to the dugout for first 2 innings.  6-up, 6-down. Looked like a long night for the Angels and their anemic offense.  When the Jays scratched out a run in the top of third, it was early, but it looked like it might be enough with Halladay working. The Angels were averaging 4.3 runs per game, 12th in the AL, barely above the 13th place Devil Rays but well ahead of the last place, duh, Royals.

In the third, Mike Napoli, the Angels rookie catcher, ripped a single to left to lead off the inning, raising his season and  career averages to .304.  Robb Quinlan struck out and Napoli took off for second when Tommy Murphy did the same.  Napoli should have been thrown out for an inning-ending strike'em ooot - throw 'em ooot  (as they say in Canada)  double play, but McDonald dropped the throw when he tied to make the tag.  Still, Halladay had retired 8 of the 9 Angels he had faced and the looked like he could do it all night.

But a double, single, wild pitch and single later, the Angels were up 3-1.

Halladay struck out Dallas McPherson to end the third, then resumed his dominant alpha-pitcher routine for the next  three innings.  The only damage the Angels could generate was another knock by Napoli. 

Toronto, meanwhile, tied the score at 3 in the 6th, on a Troy Glaus walk and back-to-back doubles by Overbay and Rios.  The Jays  took the lead in the top of the 7th with Reed Johnson scoring on Glaus's classic 9-6 fielder's choice when Vlad muffed a routine fly, but forced Vernon Wells at second.

The Angels started the 7th down 4-3, with Halladay killer, Mike Napoli, leading off.  Napoli, on cue, crushed the ball and picked up the deed to Halladay as he crossed home plate. 25 major league at-bats and he was 3-3 against one of the AL's best.

Quinlan followed with a single and Figgins came into run. Then the Angels decided to break out their Bunt-A-Matic offense.  Murphy laid down a beauty and reached on a single when Halladay had to field it falling towards third base. Inspired by this, Kennedy went small-ball too, but Halladay made a great play and forced Figgins at third.  Halladay gets two more harmless outs around a Vlad intentional walk (there is no other kind where Vlad is concerned -- I'm still waiting for him to Johnny Bench one), inning over -- thanks in no small part to the failed sacrifice.

But the true Idiot Bunt of the Day  (I was going to make this a weekly award, but there appear to be too many candidates) came in the bottom of the 8th. Spier pitching for the Jays. With one out, Juan Rivera ends up on third after a double and an error.  Aybar comes into run and to the plate steps none-other than Mike Napoli.

One out, runner on third, a guy who has been mashing all night at the plate.  I'm thinking, he's good for a hit or sacrifice fly.  So what does he do ? He attempts a BUNT.  Have I fallen asleep? Am I having a nightmare?  No, Napoli squares up, and it's a spectacularly bad bunt, a pop-up to Spier who doubles Aybar off third.

Inning over, Rally Monkey -- DOA.

Having been so successful earlier, the Angels try some more bunting in the 9th and Murphy singled again while attempting to sacrifice Figgins.  But no runs result, and Tortonto puts up a four spot against the arsonist-formerly-known-as-K-Rod in the 10th.That's it. Napoli, still stunned after being forced into an unnatural bunt attempt, struck out looking to end the game.

Let's re-cap the Angel's Offensive (either way) night:

• Sacrifice bunt attempts: 4.
• Runs attributable in any way to sacrifice bunts: 0.
• Outs directly caused by sacrifice bunts: 3.
• Runners in scoring position erased by sacrifice bunts: 2.
• Runs scored on hits that actually left the infield: 4.

• Budding young hitters permanently scarred by having the bat taken out their hands in an obvious hit/sac fly situation: 1?

I'm sorry, small ball ain't smart ball.  Even when it goes perfectly right and a sacrifice attempt results in a bunt single, it does nothing more than a walk or HBP would have done, and much less than an outfield knock of any distance would have accomplished.  And when it goes wrong?  It's an inning killer.

If the Angels spend the rest of the season insisting they only need 8 innings worth of at-bats per game, the Royals might have some competition for the AL's "Least Offensive Team" trophy. 

Well, probably not, but the A's will become a distant speck in the AL West standings.

714?

Barry (no last name needed) was just robbed by Juan Pierre.  A little sno-cone action over the center-field fence.  Guess I will have to stay up a few more innings.  Unfortunately, it is a west coast game. I will be dragging ass until I get to Fourbucks tomorrow morning. Fortunately, I am watching the Giants' cable feed, so I get to listen to the superb team of Mike Krukow and Duane Kuiper.  There are few better broadcast duos on any level.  They are informed, interesting and they let the game tell the story.  I'll try to do an "objective" analysis on them later -- once I get this project in gear -- tonight is pure fandom.

Another nice thing about watching the local broadcast is that there has been ZERO mention of the "S" word.  ESPN seems to require its announcers to mention it every time Barry comes to the plate, makes a play, appears on camera, when someone hits a home run or at least every three minutes.  Not that they offer any new information, just the typical flavorless melange of rumor, opinion and innuendo.  This is not a story people, let me watch the game. 

WGN also has the game going, I'm curious what their coverage is like, but not enough to watch tonight.  If Barry's moment happens, I want to share it with the home team.

I've lucked into a pretty good game to enjoy while on watch for 714.  Jason Schmidt is pitching a gem for the Giants.  Not that the Cub's pathetic line-up has offered much resistance since Michael Barrett hit a solo shot in the second.

This is the Cub's starting lineup...(AVG/OBP/SLG)

J Pierre CF    .233/.279/.305
R Cedeno SS    .306/.339/.454
T Walker 1B    .314/.381/.430
A Ramirez 3B    .217/.314/.447
M Barrett C    .287/.354/.529
J Jones RF    .244/.298/.460
M Murton LF    .282/.374/.406
N Perez 2B    .176/.216/.224

I respect Dusty Baker, but his man-crush on Neifi Perez and insistence on letting him start is just killing the Cubs.  I realize that Derek Lee's injury has caused them to juggle, but even so Neifi should sitting on the bench far away from the bats.  Well, he just singled for the Cubs 4th knock of the night.  The eighth inning just ended and Schmidt is at 87 pitches. He is rarely this Maddux-like, but the Cubs aren't making him work at all.  Pop-up city.

The Giants are up 6-1 after a crooked number in the 7th, so Barry probably won't bat again.  He ripped a single to left center.  His knee looked much better when he went to third on Matheny's hit.

Ah, Barry has one more chance. Randy Winn singled to start the 8th.  Barry is up again and he... flies out  very undramatically to the right fielder.  So, that's really it, barring a Cubs' comeback.  Given this lineup, it's not going to happen unless they have thawed and signed Ted Williams and have him ready to pinch hit.

The Cubs do have the "heart" of their lineup coming up: Cedeno, Walker and Ramirez. Todd Walker batting third? Sadly, given the Cubs roster, he might be their best choice there, but he should be playing second, keeping Neifi away from the batter's box.  Cubs need to find some more thump at first, and OBP all the way around. When you have 3 of your 8 position players making outs more than 70% of the time, there are going to be a lot of 1-2-3 innings and not a lot of crooked numbers.

Cedeno hacked a single to center on the second pitch.  The first lead-off batter to reach base all game. The Cubs might get to Barrett and he has 2 of the 5 hits the Cubs have managed tonight. But it is not to be, a Walker strikeout, followed by Ramirez's 4-6-3 double play on the 95th pitch sends the Giants' fans home happy.

And me to sleep for a few hours.

Sacrifice Bunting For Idiots

Caught a few innings of baseball this afternoon, between assorted child rearing activities -- assembling toys, removing applesauce from furniture, etc. -- and I need to rant about Obessive-Complusive Bunting Disorder.

I flipped on the Red Sox-Jays game. The Sox were getting pounded, so I zapped over to the Yankees-O's.  It's the 3rd inning, tied 0-0 and the O's have runners on first and second with no one out, and Melvin Mora is up.  I'm thinking, this is looking like a good inning for the boys from Bal'mer.

Now, I don't give a dog's fart about either team.  I root against them both because of my co-dependent relationship with the Sox, but when they're playing head-to-head, I'll root harder against the Yankees because I'm thinking ahead to September and the O's will not be a factor by then.

Their relative lack of pitching isn't the only reason no one has to worry about the O's.  They give away outs like they get 33 a game.  I witnessed one such misdeed shortly after I turned on the game.

As you will remember from a few paragraphs back, the O's had men on first and second, with 0 outs and their 3rd place hitter, Melvin Mora up.  Shawn Chacon is on the mound.  A decent pitcher, but not someone who sets a batter's knees a tremblin'.  In fact, it turns out he has walked the previous 2 batters and had already given Mora a free pass in the first inning. So what does Mora do?  He lays down a bunt!  The #3 hitter, possessor of .519 slugging percentage for the season, gives an out to a pitcher who has been unable to find the plate.  In the THIRD inning, against the Yankees, who are averaging 6.2 runs per game this season.

What in this situation even hints that the bunt is the smart play?  Did Sam "Let's Bunt" Perlozzo think he was going to be able to hold off the Yankees 1-0 for 9 innings?  Did he think the game was going to get called after 5 because of the weather?  Does Mora possess some super bunt capability that causes the ball to dribble all the way to the outfield wall and clear the bases? 

Now, this is almost a break even play looking at the classic Expected Run Matrix. Over the long haul, the batting team is only giving away .009 runs by giving up an out here -- assuming the sacrifice attempt is successful.  But it is still a losing play, and is even more so considering the context.  This wasn't a slap hitting shortstop facing Roger Clemens in the 9th inning.  It's the third inning, Mora is the O's 2nd or 3rd best hitter, and Chacon has just served up two walks.  This is crooked number time, not eking out a run time, especially when your own pitchers are unlikely to throw up 9 zeros. 

So Mora bunts successfully, then Tejada grounds to the pitcher and Gibbons pops to the shortstop -- zero runs!

That was bad enough, but then the O's do it again in the 5th!  They're down now 2-0, the first two batters reach base on singles and Perlozzo has Markakis attempt to bunt. But, his bunt is right back to the pitcher, who gets the runner at 3rd for a fielder's choice.  Now, you have runners on first and second with 1 out instead of 0.  Markakis is no Mora, but it's the fifth inning, you only have 15 outs left and you're down 2 runs. 

Contrast this small (minded) ball with the Yankees approach to the same situation. Bottom of the 6th, up 2-1. Runners on first and second, no one out.  Giambi up.  Does Torre have Giambi bunt?  No, Giambi works a walk and loads the bases for Matsui.  Matsui blasts a double and plates 2 runs -- still no one out. Cabrera is done, and the Yankees still have 2 men in scoring position and three outs to play with.  By the end of the inning, it's 6-1 Yankees.

In fact, the Yankees had faced this situation in the 4th as well, with Matsui up and the Yankee's leading 1-0.  Godzilla hit into a fielder's choice (should have been a double play, but Cabrera didn't cover first) and the Yank's got a run on Bernie Williams' sacrifice fly.

To be fair, the Yankees did bunt once in the third, but it was with Cano on on first and their #9 hitter Kelly Stinnett was batting. If you're going to have anyone in your line up bunt, it's an ultra-light hitting catcher who is as likely to hit into a double play as to hit a double. According to Baseball Prospectus, Stinnett hit into 5 double-plays (a rate of 17.9%) and hit 4 doubles (in 129 at-bats) last year.

For comparison sake...
Mora hit into 11 double plays (10.5%) in 2005 and hit 30 doubles (593 at-bats)
Giambi: 8 DPs (6.3%), 14 doubles (417 ABs)
Matsui: 20 DPs (12%), 45! two-baggers (629 ABs)

And this isn't  a one game phenomenon. Having Mora bunt seems to be a strategy?!? for the O's.  Let's look at Sacrifices for 2005:
Stinnett: 1
Mora: 8
Giambi: 0
Matsui: 0

Hmmm.  Yankees maximize their offensive chances by letting their good hitters hit and limiting bunt attempts to slow catchers who carry small sticks.  Orioles take the bat out of the hands of one of their best hitters with 2 runners on in the third inning! Even if the teams had equal talent, which strategy would be more productive over the course of a season? 

Thanks to Perlozzo's penchant for bunting and Cabrera's brain fart, the O's gave away 3 outs. In effect, they gave an extra inning to the Yankees.  That's a quick road to a 4th place finish in the AL East. They don't have a line up or pitching staff that will let them be so free and easy with giving up outs. Unless Sammy P. starts treating Mora's at-bats more like Matsui's than Mendoza's, that's exactly where the O's are headed. 

Anticipation

Anticipation, anticipation
Is making me late
Is keeping me waiting

Carly Simon sang it, I feel it.  It's kind of a dippy song (what pop song isn't if you really listen to the lyrics) that made a great Heinz ketchup commercial.  But the title perfectly describes my current state.

Thanks to the joys of Daylight Savings Time, the season's first pitch is only 20 hours away. It's the "World" Champion White Sox versus the almost there Cleveland Indians.  The kids will be in bed, ESPN will be on and off we go.

On Monday, I was planning on celebrating the traditional opening day by playing double hooky (tell my wife I was at the office and my boss that I was at home) and watching baseball all day long at a bar somewhere, but alas, I need to be at the office -- friggin' deadlines. Ah well, next year, I'm just taking the day off. Don't tell anyone.

Of course, I really need about 20 days, not 20 hours to be fully prepared for the season.  Here's my season readiness check list:
- Sign up for MLB Extra Innings -- Done
- Read Baseball Prospectus 2006 cover-to-cover-- In Progress (reading the Marlins chapter)
- Develop Announcer Scoring System -- Ummmm, Thinking About It
- Watch Bull Durham -- Starting DVD now

The last item is sort of a tradition (since I purchased my first DVD player anyway) and helps me get through this last day before the games actually start.  It's also easy to accomplish, and is there anything that feels better than checking off a task?

That you can discuss in a family-friendly blog?

But barring three minor miracles or a serious wrinkle in space-time, tasks 2 and 3 are not going to happen before first pitch. 

Task 3 is the real bummer.  My stated goal of this blog was to analyze all the gents (are there any women doing this yet?) talking us through the games and see if they are worth listening to or could be replaced by Cliche-A-Matic Thought-Proof Drivel Machine. Now, I could do this subjectively,and have a lot of fun doing it, but I thought it be more fun to at least attempt to be objective and generate some stats in the process:
Rate Stats:
CPI - Cliches per Inning ("You gotta throw strikes.")
HR - Hype Rate ("That's the greatest play I've ever seen.")
RCGs - Repetitive Comments per Game(aka, Beaten Dead Horses -- One of a McGabber's maladies)

Counting Stats:
II - Informative Insights (I did not know that Player A has a religious objection to bunting.)
ES - Entertaining Stories (Could be baseball related, doesn't have to be.)
SR - Self References (A particular trap that former players fall into)

It still might happen, but I've got a movie to watch and some reading to do...

Vin Scully Should Call the Series

There's a lot of dumb-ass $#!t going on in the world.  I'd enumerate it all, but I'd get even more depressed and god knows the last thing the world needs is another blog post from a depressed soul.

My one escape, besides the usual juvenile fantasies endemic to middle-aged men, is baseball. For six months a year I get to enjoy the daily dramas and joys of the season.  Then the playoffs arrive and my joy is tempered by the fact I must endure the endless "analysis" provided by Tim McCarver.  As the playoffs progress, he infects proportionally more games until the World Series when he is the sole droning, pedantic voice of Fox baseball.

But that is six months hence.  Pitchers and catchers have reported, spring training has begun and the escape can commence. Barry's last hurrah, the Red Sox's annual angst, the Cubs' ritual self-disembowelment, the Braves' 39th consecutive division title, the continuing Nats' (for the moment) saga are all but a month away.

Given my druthers and the ability to stay up for West Coast games, I'll spend most of the season watching the Giants, and listening to Kruk and Kuipe.  If I can get the kids in bed early enough, it'll be the Red Sox with Rem Dog and Don Orsillo (or Sean McDonough).  The Extra Innings package is wonderfully addictive thing.  I'll even watch the @&$^# Dodgers, because there is nothing like listening to Vin Scully. He can't keep doing it forever, so I'm going to enjoy him while I can.

I am also going to attempt to watch every other local broadcast team -- available through Extra Innings in any case -- at least twice and see how they all rate on the McCarver-Scully scale.  Perhaps the Royals announcers are everything the Royals are not (talented) and worthy of listening to despite calling games for a horrid team. 

BTW, Vin works for Fox, why can't he do the World Series?

Really why not?